STS News, Winter 2013 -- After months of work, the Society recently released a new survival probability calculator designed to estimate long-term survival following isolated CABG surgery for patients with particular combinations of risk factors. The calculator is available for download in the App Store for iPad and Google Play for Android devices. It is also available on the STS website at ascertcalc.sts.org.
The calculator is based on a risk model derived from linking STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data (version 2.52) to Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services MEDPAR data as part of the STS-ACC ASCERT grant. The results of this linked registry study can be found in a recently published article in Circulation titled “Predictors of Long-Term Survival After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery: Results From the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (The ASCERT Study).”
This new calculator estimates the long-term probability of survival following an isolated CABG surgical procedure in patients 65 years and older, using inputs on 31 patient demographic and clinical variables, such as age, weight, creatinine level, smoking history, and number of diseased vessels. The user provides the observed values for each of the variables listed and results are displayed over a series of nine points in time, ranging from 90 days to 7 years.
Because ASCERT data are limited to patients age 65 and older and focus on longer-term outcomes, this new calculator is intended to be a supplement to, not a replacement for, the current 30-day isolated CABG risk calculator that has been available on the STS website since 2005.
Users of the short-term risk calculator will be familiar with the benefits of incorporating a risk calculator tool into clinical practice, including its use as a discussion guide with patients regarding potential outcomes of an isolated CABG procedure.
“Previous risk models were valuable tools to estimate the short-term risks of CABG surgery, typically within 30 days of operation. This new model addresses a question that is just as important, or even more important, to patients and their families—if I have CABG surgery, what is the probability, given my risk factors, that I will be alive several years from now? Such information should be useful for patient counseling, procedure selection, and shared decision making,” said David M. Shahian, MD, Chair of the STS Workforce on National Databases and its Quality Measurement Task Force.
For more information about this new survival probability calculator, contact Scott Firestone, Research Coordinator, at sfirestone [at] sts [dot] org or (312) 202-5866.