STS ACSD Operative Risk Calculator

STS is excited to announce the launch of its next-generation Risk Calculator to assess risk of operative mortality, major morbidity, and short-term outcomes after the vast majority of adult cardiac surgeries. This new mobile-friendly calculator features a simplified, intuitive user design to improve physician-patient decision-making. 

The dynamic new Risk Calculator allows surgeons and multidisciplinary medical providers to estimate a patient’s risk in real time. Risk calculations are based on the most current nationwide 2023 data from the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database informed by robust risk models that continuously update every three months. 

The statistically robust procedure-specific STS Risk Calculator currently captures the vast majority of all heart surgery performed, and, by early 2024, it will capture more than 90 percent of all adult heart surgeries performed. 

Additional features include:

  • Single-page desk-top risk calculator responsive to screen size
  • Automated calculations with every user input
  • User help for all calculator inputs, and automated handling of out-of-range and missing values
  • Clinical summaries of the simulated patient are generated and updated in real-time with corresponding risk estimates
  • Ease of use to copy into the electronic health record

Questions? Contact the STS Research and Analytic Center.


operative risk calculator - dashboard

STS is reviewing its practice of making adult cardiac surgery risk model coefficients and intercepts available to investigators. We are unable to facilitate requests for risk model information at this time.